Weather this fall and winter should be very variable across
Georgia and an early freeze and extreme cold weather is
expected, according to the University of Georgia’s state
climatologist.
“There is a high likelihood that south Georgia will experience
lows between 20 and 25 oF. [Temperatures in the] teens are not
out of the realm of possibility,” said David Stooksbury, UGA
state climatologist. “In middle Georgia, lows in the low teens
to single digits are expected, while the mountains can expect
lows around zero or below.”
Associated with the variable nature of this winter’s weather,
Stooksbury says cold periods will be separated by relative mild
periods.
“It will seem as if the air temperature is on a roller
coaster,” he said.
Precipitation is expected to be near normal, but “because of
the variability in temperatures, more than normal snow [fall]
would not be a surprise,” he said.
The amount of snow depends on the right combination of cold air
and moisture. With more variable conditions, the likelihood of
the necessary combination for snow occurring is increased.
Unlike recent years, neither El Nino or La Nina weather
patterns are expected to develop this fall and winter. Without
either pattern, the atmosphere is considered to be in a neutral
pattern.
“Under the neutral weather pattern, the southeast is more
easily invaded by cold air from Canada,” said
Stooksbury. “However, Georgia is far enough south that the cold
air is usually modified within a few days.”
With more Canadian cold fronts expected this fall and winter,
the likelihood of severe weather including thunderstorms and
tornados is higher.
Severe weather during the fall and winter is common across the
state.
“In Georgia, severe weather can occur at any time,” he
said. “Tornado outbreaks at night are just as likely as during
the day.”
Stooksbury says he views the purchase of a NOAA weather radio
as a wise investment to help insure your family’s personal
safety.
“An inexpensive NOAA weather radio can warn of impending danger
as well as give updated weather conditions and forecasts,” he
said.
Farmers and gardeners alike should plan ahead for the up-coming
weather conditions.
“Agricultural producers and home gardeners should plan for high
variability in fall and winter temperatures,” said
Stooksbury. “Late in the winter, the primary concern will be
plants breaking dormancy before the last hard freeze.”
Because of the expected cold weather extremes, energy demand
for heating is expected to be high this fall and winter, too,
he added.
(David Emory Stooksbury is the state climatologist and a
professor of engineering and atmospheric sciences in the
University of Georgia College of Agricultural and Environmental
Sciences.)
