The drought that has gripped Georgia since late spring 1998
will continue well into 2000. Major
concerns during early 2000 will be an increased risk of wildfires
and the lack of moisture to
recharge groundwater, farm ponds and reservoirs. The lack of rain
is adding to concerns about
spring and summer soil moisture supplies. Without adequate
recharge during the winter and early
spring, soil moisture will be in short supply during the 2000
growing season.
Currently, the greatest concern is in south and central
Georgia. However, north Georgia is also
dry. Conditions need to be closely monitored.
La Nina Pattern
The continuation of the drought is related to La Nina. La Nina
is an abnormal
cooling of the surface water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
The world’s oceans
and the atmosphere interact. The abnormally cool equatorial
Pacific waters influence
the position of upper air wind patterns (jet streams). The
upper air wind patterns
are the driving currents for weather during a La Nina winter.
The La Nina pattern
usually brings less storminess and less precipitation across
most of the southeastern
United States.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) reports that La Nina gained in strength
during November
and shows no signs of weakening. National Center for
Environmental Prediction’s
computer models are indicating that the current La Nina event
could continue
through the middle of the year 2000. Thus the drought is
expected to continue.
Outlook Dry
The January through March 2000 climate outlook from CPC is for
a northwest
to southeast increased probability of below normal
precipitation across Georgia.
Specifically, the outlook is for a 48 percent chance of below
normal, a 33 percent
chance of normal, and only a 19 percent chance of above normal
precipitation
south of an Augusta to Thomasville line. Northwest of a Clayton
to La Grange
line, probabilities are for equal chances of below normal,
normal or above normal
precipitation.
The temperature outlook for January through March 2000 is for
an increased
probability of above normal temperatures statewide. North of a
Blakely to Sylvania
line the outlook is for a 58 percent probability of above
normal, a 33 percent
probability of normal, and a 9 percent probability of below
normal temperatures.
South of this line, the outlook is for a 48 percent probability
of above normal,
a 33 percent probability of normal, and a 19 percent
probability of below normal
temperatures.
Take Precautions
The climate outlooks are based on averages and are not
day-to-day weather forecasts.
While the winter may have above normal average temperatures,
Georgia will still
experience cold weather. Don’t be lulled into a false sense of
security. Normal
wintertime precautions for cold should still be performed.
Plants and animals
that are subject to cold should still be given the proper
protection. Without
a normal late fall hardening period, some plants will be more
prone to cold
damage. This is especially true of plants that have not gone
fully dormant for
the winter.
The wintertime precipitation outlooks are also based on
averages and are not day-to-day
forecasts. Even while the drought continues, Georgia will
continue to have rainfall. Areas that are
prone to flood are still at risk, even during a drought. Proper
precautions, including flood
insurance, need to continue.
