La Niña can explain the prolonged drought that began in
Georgia in May 1998. While you
can’t blame La Niña for the weather on any given day, it is
responsible for the general
pattern. It has influenced the state’s climate since
mid-1998.

In the La
Niña pattern the sea surface in the equatorial Pacific
Ocean is abnormally cold.
During La Niña, Georgia normally has below-normal winter
precipitation and above-normal
winter temperatures. That’s been true statewide in the winter
of 1999-2000.

The CPC’s February La Niña advisory reports that strong
cold-surface conditions
continued in the equatorial Pacific during January 2000.

La Niña Expected to
Weaken

The current La Niña is in a mature stage. CPC computer
models and statistical
predictors expect La Niña to slowly weaken over the next
several months. Surface
temperatures figure to be near neutral to slightly cool during
the second half of 2000.

An El Niño pattern may slowly develop as La Niña weakens. In
this pattern, the
equatorial Pacific surface is abnormally warm.

CPC reports that the subsurface temperature pattern in the
equatorial Pacific is
starting to evolve into the build-up stage for an El Niño
pattern. The build-up period
usually takes one to two years.

First Sign Drought’s End May Be in
Sight

This change in the ocean temperature pattern is the first
sign that the drought’s end
may be in sight. However, it will be late summer before we can
expect much of a chance of
relief.

While it is too early to forecast the start of the next El
Niño, late 2001 or early
2002 are reasonable estimates. El Niño winters in Georgia are
associated with
above-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures.