By Sharon Omahen
University of Georgia
Mother Nature appears to be cutting Georgia farmers some slack so
far this year. And a new, three-state Web site can help them
prepare for whatever the weather offers.
“Now’s the time to prepare for rough weather,” said Joel Paz, an
Extension agrometeorologist with the University of Georgia
College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences. “We’re having
a normal-weather year this year. When you’re experiencing an El
Niño, you have to have your contingency plans ready.”
Paz is on a multi-university team of researchers who have
developed the Web resource to help farmers stay ahead of the
weather. The site can help them prepare for many weather
conditions driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
phenomenon.
Forecasts
The Southeast Climate Consortium issues quarterly forecasts to
help farmers in Alabama, Florida and Georgia manage their crops.
The forecasts are on-line at www.agclimate.org.
The SECC Web site uses data collected from university resources
and the National Climate Data Center. It’s based on more than 50
years of weather data. And it provides monthly rainfall and
temperature forecasts for Alabama, Florida and Georgia counties.
It offers advice, too, for neutral, El Niño and La Niña ENSO
phases. Florida State University’s Center for Ocean-Atmospheric
Prediction Studies produces the SECC climate forecasts.
At the Tallahassee center, researchers monitor surface
temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator to predict
potential weather effects in the southeastern United States.
Periodic warming or cooling of those ocean surfaces, known as El
Niño or La Niña, can affect U.S. weather patterns. El Niños bring
increased winter rainfall. La Niñas have the opposite effect.
Neutral phase
Pacific Ocean surface temperatures are near normal now, or in a
neutral phase.
Farmers make many business decisions based on unknown weather
conditions, Paz said. They decide whether to buy crop insurance
or grow a particular crop.
The AgClimate Web site allows them to select their county, soil
type, irrigation method and past yields. The site creates a
personalized prediction of the farmer’s yields based on his
fields, the climate forecast and planting dates.
The site has data for peanuts, potatoes and tomatoes. The team
plans to add cotton and other Southeastern vegetable crops soon.
The site covers cold weather factors, too. Farmers who grow
peaches, blueberries, strawberries and other fruits will benefit
from the chilling-hours data.
“There’s a big difference between climate data and weather data,”
Paz said. “Weather information is used day-to-day. Climate
information affects farmers’ future decisions, including variety
selection and management regimens.”
More than farmers
The Web site was designed for farmers. But Paz says many other
groups will find the climate information useful.
“We’re starting to target the information to government agencies
like the emergency management agencies,” he said. “And we’ve
found that water-resource managers also find the data quite
useful.”
The Web site data predicts the likelihood of wildfires, too. It
forecasts little chance of wildfires this summer, due to recent
heavy rains, the likelihood of a wet summer and the end of the
Southeast’s traditional wildfire season, which runs from January
through early June.
The SECC’s fall outlook, due in early September, will indicate
whether the neutral phase is continuing, Paz said.
As with most weather and climate projects, there’s always a
margin of error.
“We look at probabilities based on history,” he said. “Our Web
site is accurate. But you’ve always got to give yourself some
wiggle room.”
SECC member universities, besides UGA, are Auburn,
Alabama-Huntsville, Florida, Florida State and Miami.
The SECC is funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration’s Office of Global Programs, the U.S. Department
of Agriculture’s Cooperative State Research, Education and
Extension Service and the USDA’s Risk Management Agency.
(Sharon Omahen is a news editor with the University of Georgia
College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences.)
