The drought that has gripped Georgia since May 1998 is expected
to continue and will likely worsen during the spring and
summer.

Early winter rains gave hope that Georgia’s long drought would
recede. However, an extremely dry late December through late
February has caused drought conditions to intensify statewide.

As of February 20, all locations in Georgia are reporting
rainfall deficits for the year.
Athens is 3.49 inches below normal, Atlanta 3.78, Augusta
3.78, Columbus 5.46, Macon 4.95, Savannah 3.93 and Tifton
6.18.

These deficits are on top of the 10 to 15 inches below normal
values for 2000. Since May 1998, much of the state is more than
30 inches below normal.

Soil Moisture Low

Soil moisture models from the National Climate Prediction
Center (CPC) indicate that soil moisture is very low across
the entire state. It’s extremely low in the piedmont and the
northeast mountain counties.

Streams are at record or near-record low flows for late February.
Without substantial rainfall, streamflow
conditions won’t improve. Groundwater
levels also remain at record or near-record low levels for
February.

The Georgia Forestry Commission reports that in January 2001
there were 1,297 wildfires, which is 102 percent above normal.
These fires affected 4,743 acres, 134 percent above normal.

Prospects Not Good

Prospects for widespread, long-term drought relief are not good.
Conditions will probably worsen during the spring and summer.
CPC’s drought outlook for Georgia is for the drought to continue
at least through May.

Based on past climate, March is Georgia’s last best chance for
relief. With the extremely low deep-soil moisture and groundwater
levels, March is too short for major recharge. However, normal
rainfall in March will help topsoil moisture and reservoir
levels.

In March, soil moisture normally increases with bountiful spring
rains and minimal soil moisture loss from evaporation and plant
water use.

Spring Rains Badly Needed

By April, soil moisture loss is normally balanced by rainfall.
Starting in May, the soil moisture loss from evaporation and
plant water use is usually greater than the rainfall. Thus by
May, with normal weather, the state’s soils will begin to become
dryer.

If the soils are dry on April 1, with normal weather, drought
conditions will continue and worsen through the spring and
summer.

The March-through-May climate outlook from CPC is for an
increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall statewide except in
the extreme northern mountain counties.

Across the extreme north, the outlook is for equal chances of
below-normal, near-normal, and above-normal rainfall. CPC’s
temperature outlook for March through May is for equal chances of
below-normal, near-normal, and above-normal temperatures.

Hotter-than-normal Summer

The June-through-August climate outlook from CPC is for an
increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures statewide.
Above-normal temperatures will increase soil moisture loss
through increased evaporation and increased plant water use.
CPC’s rainfall outlook is for equal chances of below-normal,
near-normal and above-normal rainfall across the entire state.

Even with normal rainfall during the summer, Georgia’s soils
become drier. With the soils already dry, normal weather will
just compound the problem. All of this indicates that the drought
will continue and likely worsen through the summer.