By David Emory Stooksbury
University of Georgia
Scattered showers and thunderstorms slowed Georgia’s slide into
deeper drought during June and July. While conditions
deteriorated more slowly, northwest and southwest Georgia still
slid into exceptional drought.
Bountiful rains have greatly improved conditions in southeast and
coastal Georgia. Parts of inland southeast Georgia, 12 counties
in all, are no longer classified as being in drought.
Of Georgia’s remaining 147 counties, drought conditions are
exceptional in 37, extreme in 55, severe in 16, moderate in 21
and mild in 10, with eight abnormally dry.
In late June, no counties were in exceptional drought, but
conditions were extreme in 104 and severe in 38. Then, conditions
were moderate in just 15 and mild in only two, and no county was
just abnormally dry or not in drought.
Exceptional drought conditions are expected about once in 100
years. This is based on many indicators, including rainfall since
Oct. 1 and over the past 180, 90, 30 and 14 days, soil moisture,
stream flows, groundwater levels and reservoir levels.
Northwest, southwest counties scorched
These exceptional conditions have developed in 23 northwest
Georgia counties: Bartow, Carroll, Catoosa, Chattooga, Cherokee,
Cobb, Coweta, Dade, Douglas, Floyd, Fulton, Gilmer, Gordon,
Haralson, Harris, Heard, Murray, Paulding, Pickens, Polk, Troup,
Walker and Whitfield.
In southwest Georgia, 14 counties now have exceptional drought
conditions: Baker, Calhoun, Clay, Decatur, Dougherty, Early,
Grady, Miller, Mitchell, Quitman, Randolph, Seminole, Terrell and
Thomas.
Soil moisture is near the first percentile in northwest and
southwest Georgia. At this level, we would expect the soil to be
moister in 99 of 100 years.
Several streams in southwest and northwest Georgia are at record
low flows for early August. These include Ichawaynochaway Creek
near Milford, Spring Creek near Iron City, the Flint River at
Bainbridge, Cedar Creek near Cedartown and the Oostanaula River
near Rome.
Other rivers setting record low flows for the date are the Flint
near Griffin and the Chattooga near Clayton.
Soil moisture dropping
With temperatures hovering around 100 and many regions getting
little to no rain over the past seven to 10 days, soil moisture
levels are dropping quickly statewide.
Soil moisture loss to evaporation and plant use is now running
between one-quarter and one-third of an inch per day. If the
August trend of hot days with little to no rain continues, the
regions in relatively good shape could find conditions
deteriorating quickly.
Severe drought conditions are in Atkinson, Clinch, Crawford,
Crisp, Dooly, Greene, Irwin, Jasper, Lincoln, Macon, Monroe,
Peach, Putnam, Taliaferro, Turner and Wilkes counties.
Short-term moisture deficits have caused drought conditions to
deteriorate especially in the central and southern Savannah River
Valley. Rainfall over the past month has been between 50 percent
and 70 percent of normal.
Deteriorating conditions have resulted in moderate drought in
Bulloch, Burke, Columbia, Effingham, Evans, Glascock, Jenkins,
McDuffie, Screven, Richmond and Warren counties.
Moderate conditions are also in Baldwin, Bibb, Ben Hill, Coffee,
Hancock, Houston, Jones, Pulaski, Ware and Wilcox counties.
Drought conditions are mild in Bacon, Bleckley, Dodge, Jeff
Davis, Jefferson, Pierce, Telfair, Twiggs, Washington and
Wilkinson counties.
Helpful rains
Much of coastal and southeast Georgia had bountiful rains in June
and July. However, rainfall deficits for the water year (since
Oct. 1) leave eight of these counties classified as abnormally
dry: Brantley, Bryan, Camden, Charlton, Chatham, Glynn, Liberty
and McIntosh.
The summer rains have brought Appling, Candler, Emanuel, Johnson,
Laurens, Long, Montgomery, Tattnall, Toombs, Treutlen, Wayne and
Wheeler counties back to normal conditions.
In these counties rainfall for the water year and the past 180,
90, 30 and 14 days has been near or above normal. Soil moisture
levels are near normal for early August.
Because of the sandy nature of these counties’ soils, however,
agricultural drought can develop quickly if temperatures remain
in the middle to upper 90s with little to no rain.
Extreme drought
The remaining 55 Georgia counties are in extreme drought,
including most of south-central, west-central, north-central and
northeast Georgia.
Across the extreme drought region, soil moisture levels are
between the 2nd and 5th percentiles. At these levels, we would
expect soils to be moister in 95 to 98 of 100 years.
Stream flows in this region are generally between the 2nd and 5th
percentiles. With little rain and 100-degree temperatures over
the past week, many of these streams are nearing record low
levels.
Groundwater levels remain low statewide for this time of the year.
Relief?
No widespread relief is foreseeable. In August and September, the
best hope for widespread drought relief is from tropical weather
systems. Without these, we can expect the drought to worsen over
the next two months.
If dry conditions continue, high temperatures during August can
be expected to remain in the middle 90s to low 100s across the
piedmont and coastal plain. The Georgia mountains can expect
temperatures in the upper 80s to middle 90s.
Get updated drought information at www.georgiadrought.org.
The state drought Web site includes information on how to deal
with the drought.
Updated weather information is at www.georgiaweather.net.
This University of Georgia network has 71 automated weather
stations statewide.
(David Emory Stooksbury is the state climatologist and a
professor of engineering and atmospheric sciences in the
University of Georgia College of Agricultural and Environmental
Sciences.)
