By Sharon Omahen
University of Georgia
The return of an El Niño climate pattern in the Pacific
Ocean
will make the Georgia, Florida and Alabama weather colder and
wetter this fall and winter, says University of Georgia
agrometeorologist Joel Paz. But residents of these states will
fight fewer hurricanes.
Paz tracks climate patterns as a member of the Southeast Climate
Consortium, offering advice on neutral, El Niño and La
Niña
climate phases. The SECC also includes UGA state climatologist
David Stooksbury and his Florida State counterpart David Zierden.
The SECC’s fall climate outlook for Georgia, Florida and Alabama
is based on an El Niño that has returned for the first
time since
2003, said Paz, a UGA College of Agricultural and Environmental
Sciences faculty member.
Started in July, will last through winter
The condition began in July, when unusually warm sea surface
temperatures appeared along the equator around the International
Date Line, Paz said. It has since spread all the way to the coast
of South America.
Over the past two weeks, Paz said, the spread of unusually warm
water has taken on the traditional El Niño pattern.
“It’s very likely that the current El Niño will
intensify further
and last through the winter of 2007,” he said.
So how will this El Niño affect the Southeastern
climate?
Less hurricanes
“El Niño normally reaches peak intensity and coverage
in the
winter,” Paz said. “The first impact felt in the Southeastern
U.S. has been the relatively inactive hurricane season. In spite
of predictions to the contrary, 2006 has been a quiet tropical
season so far, and many are blaming the developing El
Niño.”
El Niño is known to create an environment of high shear
(winds
changing with height) over hurricane formation regions in the
Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, Paz said. This hinders
hurricane development.
“With El Niño continuing to grow and the hurricane
season more
than half over,” he said, “we expect below-average activity the
remainder of the hurricane season.”
The decrease in tropical activity combined with the El
Niño will
actually bring drier-than-normal weather to Florida, southern
Alabama and southern Georgia in September and October, Paz said.
The El Niño is not expected to influence the temperatures
during
these months.
The climate in the Southeast would be fairly dry in the fall
without the impact of a tropical system.
More rain, colder temps
But from November to March, SECC experts say the El
Niño may
bring more frequent storms, excessive rainfall and cooler
temperatures to Florida and coastal Alabama and Georgia.
The increased rainfall and cloudiness associated with El Niño
will cause average temperatures to be cooler than normal during
the winter, Paz said. However, the El Niño should actually reduce
the risk of severe cold outbreaks in the Southeast.
“The cooler temperatures should result in greater chill
accumulations over the course of the season,” he said. “But the
strong subtropical jet stream that is typical of El Niño
blocks
the intrusions of cold Arctic air masses.”
To view detailed SECC climate forecasts, see the consortium’s Web
site at www.agclimate.org.
