There is a very high probability that the drought of ’99
will continue well
into 2000. I hope I am wrong with this outlook, because if I’m
right, Georgia
will have several more months of increased wildfire danger,
low stream flows
and agricultural impacts.

To learn what region you live in, go here.

This disheartening outlook is based on two factors at work
against Georgia’s
quick recovery from the drought.

Climatology

The first is climatology. Climatological fall (September
through November)
is the driest three months of the year in Georgia. October is
the driest.

Average monthly rainfall will remain below 4 inches until
December. All sections
of the state need at least 9 inches of rain to end the
drought. Thus, short
of a major tropical weather system, fall rains won’t be enough
to break the
drought.

La
Ni¤a

The second factor is La Ni¤a, which is a cooling of the
equatorial Pacific
Ocean surface. It’s the opposite of El Ni¤o, which is a
warming of the equatorial
Pacific surface.

During La Ni¤a winters, Georgia normally has below-
normal rainfall. The
winter of ’98-’99 was a prime example of a La Ni¤a winter
in the South.

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction reports
that La Ni¤a
strengthened in August 1999. This strengthening reversed a
general weakening
trend that had been occurring since January 1999.

Besides the observational evidence of a strengthening La
Ni¤a, NCEP’s
computer models indicate that La Ni¤a may last through May
2000.

The Climate Prediction Center’s climate outlook for October
through December
1999 is for equal chances of below-normal (33%), normal (34%)
and above-normal
(33%) temperatures and precipitation across Georgia.

Drier
winter

As we enter winter, the outlook for rain decreases. For
November through January,
the precipitation probabilities across north Georgia are for a
43-percent chance
of below-normal, a 34-percent chance of normal and a 23-
percent chance of above-normal
precipitation.

Across south Georgia, the dry outlook is even more
pronounced, with a 53-percent
chance of below-normal, a 34-percent chance of normal and only
a 13-percent
chance of above-normal precipitation.

CPC’s outlook for the same period is for equal chances of
below-normal, normal,
and above-normal temperatures.

Temperature and
precipitation winter
outlook

ÿ

For climatological winter (December through February), CPC’s
outlook is for
an increased probability of above-normal temperatures
statewide. The statewide
probabilities are for an 18-percent chance of below-normal, a
34-percent chance
of normal and a 48-percent chance of above normal
temperatures.

The precipitation probabilities for December through February
range from equal
chances of below-normal, normal and above-normal precipitation
across extreme
north Georgia to a 53-percent chance of below-normal, a 34-
percent chance of
normal and a 13-percent chance of above-normal precipitation
across south Georgia.

Average, not daily
forcasts

It’s important to remember when using three-month climate
outlooks that the
outlooks don’t forecast daily weather or extremes. The three
months may have
an average temperature above normal, but there may still be
days in which the
temperature will be much below normal.

Daily record lows could be set even though the three-month
average is above
normal. Cold periods during an otherwise warm winter can do
more damage than
if the winter had averaged colder than normal.

With the three-month precipitation outlook, the outlook is
for the total precipitation
during the whole period. Thus, even when the three-month total
is below normal,
periods of heavy rain and flooding are possible.

Impacts of
continued drought

If the drought continues through the winter, many Georgians
will feel the
impacts:

• The wildfire danger will continue to increase. The
  Georgia Forestry Commission
  is already warning the public to postpone any outdoor
  burning until conditions
  improve. This warning is months before the normal peak
  wildfire season in
  late winter and early spring.
  
  
  
• Low stream flows will continue, causing a higher
  concentration of pollutants.
  Low stream flows along the coast will have a negative impact
  on the state’s
  shrimp industry. Reservoirs and water tables will remain
  low.
  
  
  
• The soil-moisture recharge that normally occurs in the
  winter may not be
  adequate. Dry soils will have a direct impact on pastures
  and small grains
  and will also make cold damage more likely to plants in the
  fields. When spring
  planting begins, dry soils will decrease germination and
  stand development.

You can get updates on the drought in Georgia and across the
Southeast at
the University of Georgia drought Web site(www.griffin.
peachnet.edu/caes/drought/).
Or call your county Extension Service agent.

Get updated weather data at the Georgia Automated
Environmental Monitoring
web site (www.griffin.peachnet.
edu/bae/).