Georgia pecan growers expect a smaller-than-average crop this
year. But a carryover supply from last season should help meet
demand for the holidays, says a University of Georgia economist.
Prices at stores should be about the same as last year’s.



“I don’t think we can expect much movement of prices at
retail
this year,” said Wojciech Florkowski, an economist with the UGA
College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences.



According to the Georgia Agricultural Statistics Service,
growers
will harvest close to 80 million pounds of pecans this season.
This is below last year’s production of 120 million pounds.



Cold Storage Holds
Prices



Because the new crop hasn’t hit the stores, Florkowski said
early-season
prices are a little high.



At some stores, shelled nut halves and large pieces are going
for about $6.99 a pound, “which is not a bargain,” he
said. These nuts have been in cold storage since last
season.

“The new crop hasn’t arrived to retailers yet,”
Florkowski
said. “(The cold-storage pecans)are sold in large packages at a
discount store. So the prices stay at least at last year’s level
at retail
outlets.”



Though prices will remain stable, people may have to look harder
for pecans. “There will be probably fewer opportunities to
buy pecans at road stands or farmers markets because of the
smaller
crop,” Florkowski said.



Quality




Since pecans in stores now are coming out of storage, Florkowski
advises shoppers to use these nuts first. It’s hard to tell how
long pecans are kept in storage and under what conditions.
However,
by using the nuts quickly, consumers can still enjoy the full
flavor.



People wanting to freeze nuts for storage this year should wait
a few weeks. The fresher crop should be making its way to stores
by then, he said. Fresh nuts are brighter, plumper and well
filled.



Competitors Keep Check on Retail
Prices



This year, a large supply of almonds, walnuts and other tree
nuts
will be in stores. These alternatives will keep pressure on
pecan
prices at consumer levels. Evidence shows that if people eat
nuts,
they will eat many types, Florkowski said.



“Under such circumstances, price becomes a factor,”
he said. “Consumers may substitute one variety for another
if these are available. This seems to be the case this season
with almonds and walnuts priced at a level substantially below
pecan prices.”



Prices More Volatile on the Farm




Prices for farmers aren’t as stable as in the stores, he
said.



“Prices received by growers can change dramatically from
one season to the next,” Florkowski said. “Sometimes
they can double, and sometimes they drop by one-half.”



Prices may rise in years of short supply, but not necessarily
drop in large-supply years. Because last year was an
above-average
production year, a larger part of the crop was withdrawn and
stored,
waiting for prices to improve. Almond and walnut prices are more
responsive to supply and demand.



He said retail pricing strategies are outside nut growers’
control.
They are just one part of the retailer marketing strategy.



“If one looks at prices of most agricultural commodities,
including pecans, prices after accounting for the rate of
inflation
have been declining,” he said. “The decline is not
steady,
but certainly detectible after a longer period.”



With an average pecan harvest of 100 million pounds, Georgia
produces
more than half of the U.S. crop.