By Brad Haire
University of Georgia
The rest of Georgia’s spring will likely see variable
temperatures and extended dry or wet periods, says the state’s
climatologist. The summer will be typical, with most rainfall
coming from afternoon or evening thunderstorms and possible
tropical storms.
Georgia’s weather is now associated with a neutral El Niño –
Southern Oscillation, said David Stooksbury, state climatologist
and engineering professor with the University of Georgia College
of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences.
A neutral ENSO is one not marked by an El Niño, when surface
water of the Pacific Ocean along the equator is warmer than
normal, or a La Niña, when the water is cooler, he said. El
Niños bring Georgia cool, wet winters and springs. La Niña
winters and springs are typically warm and dry.
During the drought between 1998 and 2002, a La Niña pattern kept
winter rain from adequately recharging the state’s groundwater,
reservoirs and soils, he said.
A neutral ENSO winter has “variable” weather. It could be warm
and dry one week and cold and wet the next. The winter of 2003-
04 was a neutral one, too.
It rained between October and February in Georgia, but not
much. “I was a little concerned that if that cycle continued,”
Stooksbury said, “there could be water issues this summer.”
But March, historically one of Georgia’s wettest months, brought
most of the state’s 12 to 17 inches of rain since the first of
the year, according to the Georgia Automated Environmental
Monitoring Network.
Moisture conditions are generally good across the state. “The
recent rain has done a good job recharging the soil moisture,”
Stooksbury said. “Farm ponds are filled, and the reservoirs are
in good shape.”
The recent soggy weather has kept some farmers out of their
fields and prevented some from planting corn and tobacco in the
southern region.
The variability of the neutral ENSO will even out as summer
approaches, he said. Georgia will have a typical, humid summer
with temperatures in the mid-80s and 90s and spikes around 100.
The heat should generate hit-or-miss afternoon thunderstorms.
Localized droughts can happen quickly during Georgia’s hot
summers. Two to three weeks without rainfall in an area can be
enough to hurt farm crops and have an economic impact,
Stooksbury said.
This year should have an above-average tropical weather season
in the Atlantic Ocean. But fewer storms than in 2004 will likely
make landfall, according to information released by the
Department of Atomospheric Science at Colorado State
University.
For detailed information on the spring and early-summer climate
outlook, go to the Southeast Climate Consortium’s Web page at
secc.coaps.fsu.edu.
Climate impact information and Georgia farm and forestry
decision tools can be found at www.agclimate.org.
