By David Emory Stooksbury
University of
Georgia
Abnormally warm water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and
Caribbean Sea are raising the probability of an active, early
start to the hurricane season.
The official Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through
Nov. 30. However, tropical systems can and do form outside the
official season.
Historically, early season tropical systems that impact Georgia
form in the Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean Sea. In June, the
surface water temperatures in these regions are normally reaching
the critical 82 degrees usually necessary to support the
development of tropical systems.
In early May 2006, much of the Caribbean Sea has reached the
critical 82-degree level. Much of the Gulf of Mexico is in the
upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Thus the regions where we expect
early season tropical systems to develop are now or soon will be
at or above the critical temperature level.
Early, surly
Not only are sea surface temperatures abnormally warm for early
May, the entire hurricane season is expected to be very active.
William Gray, a professor in the Colorado State University
Department of Atmospheric Science, predicts 17 named storms in
2006. That’s nearly twice the annual average of 9.6. He forecasts
nine hurricanes, well above the average of 5.9.
With an early active start to the hurricane season possible and a
very active season expected, Georgians should begin preparing now.
As was seen after Katrina, it may take days for help to arrive in
the event of a natural or man-made, devastating disaster. Each
family, then, needs the necessary supplies to support life for
several days.
Either assemble or check the supplies in your all-hazards kit
now, before you need it. The most critical supply is at least 1
gallon of drinking water per person per day for 14 days. More
water will be needed for cooking and hygiene.
Besides water, the all-hazards kit should include nonperishable
foods, a hand can opener, medications, important papers,
battery-powered radio, NOAA weather radio and extra batteries. A
detailed list of recommended contents for an all-hazards kit may
be found at www.ready.gov/america/get_a_kit.html.
You, too
The entire state is vulnerable to impacts from tropical systems.
While storm surge along the coast and wind damage receive the
most attention, inland flooding is a concern statewide from the
coastal plain to the mountains.
Georgia had massive flooding in 1994 from tropical storm Alberto.
Mississippi and Louisiana experienced massive flooding from
hurricane Katrina in 2005. In both instances, areas that many
assumed safe from flooding were flooded. Much of the flooding
occurred outside the standard 100-year flood plain.
Unfortunately, as many in Georgia, Mississippi and Louisiana
discovered, standard homeowners and small business insurance
doesn’t cover flood damage.
Because of the devastating loss caused by flooding, Georgians
should seriously consider buying flood insurance, even if it’s
not required by the mortgage holder. It’s important to remember
that there is a 30-day wait period before flood insurance
policies take effect. Waiting until a storm forms is too late.
Information about the National Flood Insurance Program may be
found at www.floodsmart.gov/floodsmart/pages/inscenter.jsp.
Federal Emergency Management Agency information on flood damage
prevention may be found at www.floodsmart.gov/floodsmart/pages/index.jsp.
Coastal climate information, including real-time water
temperature information, may be found at www.coastalclimate.org.
Real-time weather conditions across Georgia may be found at www.georgiaweather.net.
(David Emory Stooksbury is the state climatologist and a
professor of engineering and atmospheric sciences in the
University of Georgia College of Agricultural and Environmental
Sciences.)
