By Brad Haire
University of Georgia
The U.S. government said last week it would begin to set limits
on how much clothing China could ship into the country. The move
was praised by the U.S. textile industry. But the decision may
not help U.S. cotton farmers, says a University of Georgia
economist.
Since the global textile quota system ended Jan. 1, U.S. imports
of some Chinese-made clothes like trousers and underwear have
increased more than 300 percent. In that time, 16,600 textile
workers have lost jobs, and 18 U.S. mills have closed, says the
National Council of Textile Organizations.
The new quota will allow only a 7.5 percent increase annually
for certain Chinese clothing products. The U.S. textile industry
believes this will save jobs and bolster the faltering
industry.
But the reinstated quota has angered Chinese officials. China’s
minister of commerce will protest the decision, according to a
May 18 report by the official Chinese press agency.
Big buyer
It’s unclear how the reimposed quotas will affect U.S. cotton
farmers, said Don Shurley, a cotton economist with the UGA
Extension Service. But one thing is clear: U.S. cotton farmers
need China to buy their cotton.
Farmers will be hurt, he said, if China decides not to buy U.S.
cotton, either to retaliate against the quotas or if it doesn’t
need as much cotton to make clothes.
The United States produced 23 million bales of cotton last year.
(A bale is about 480 pounds of fiber.) It was a record crop. The
nation usually grows 19 million to 20 million bales annually. Of
that, 13 million to 14 million bales must be bought by other
countries.
“We’re not going to get rid of that much cotton without China,”
Shurley said.
There are fewer U.S. textile mills. In 1997, U.S. mills used
11.3 million bales of U.S.-grown cotton, Shurley said. This
year, they’re expected to use 5.8 million bales.
China has bought a lot of U.S. cotton in recent years. According
to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the Chinese are expected
to buy 8 million bales of foreign cotton this year. The United
States typically supplies half of that. China has bought 3
million bales so far this year.
China hasn’t threatened to stop buying U.S. cotton. But any cut
in the country’s purchase of U.S. cotton will affect prices,
Shurley said.
The world has a surplus of cotton. Farmers worldwide grew 114
million bales last year. Of that, only 103 million bales were
used.
“China can get its cotton from other places,” he said.
Shrinking industry
A healthy U.S. textile industry helps U.S. farmers, too. By
creating a demand for their cotton closer to home, they’re less
dependent on foreign buyers.
“But a small increase in use by the U.S. textile industry won’t
immediately help U.S. cotton farmers sell their cotton,” Shurley
said.
U.S. textile mills have closed for several reasons in recent
years, Shurley said. But increased competition by foreign mills
and increased imports of finished clothing products have greatly
contributed.
Cool, wet spring weather kept many Georgia farmers out of their
fields and delayed cotton planting, said Steve Brown, a UGA
Extension Service cotton agronomist. Warm, dry weather in May,
though, has helped them catch up.
As of May 15, the Georgia Agricultural Statistics Service
reported that only 38 percent of the crop had been planted. Only
19 percent had been planted a week earlier. Half the crop is
usually planted by this time.
“It’s too early to say how the crop will turn out this year,”
Brown said. “A lot can happen between now and harvest.”
