By Sharon Omahen
University of Georgia
Most Georgians probably don’t care much about weather patterns in
the Pacific Ocean. But an unusually cold ocean surface there should
bring warmer, drier weather here this spring.
Periodic warming or cooling of tropical Pacific Ocean surfaces,
known as El Niño or La Niña, can affect U.S.
weather patterns. El
Niño brings more winter rains. La Niña has the
opposite effect.
“The temperatures in the Pacific Ocean affect the mainland U.S.
because they affect the jet stream patterns,” said Joel Paz, an
Extension agrometeorologist with the University of Georgia College
of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences.
Cooling waters
Paz said these ocean temperatures were normal for nearly two
years.
But then “the far eastern Pacific, near the coast of South America,
began to cool in October,” Paz said.
“The cooling water has since spread westward to the international
date line,” he said. “The unusually cold sea-surface temperatures
are now taking the classic La Niña configuration.”
So what does all this mean to you? Georgia, Florida and Alabama
will see drier and warmer-than-normal weather for late winter and
spring, he said.
Paz says this La Niña event is unusual in that it came
late in the
season.
“The classic La Niña climate pattern in the
Southeastern U.S.
corresponds to fall, winter and spring seasons that are generally
warmer and 20 percent to 40 percent drier than normal,” he said.
More wildfires possible
“La Niña has a bigger impact in south Georgia, below
the fall
line,” he said. “It’s also known to bring an active wildfire season
to Florida and the coastal plains of Alabama and Georgia.”
Paz tracks these weather patterns as part of a multi-university
team of researchers who offer advice for neutral, El Niño
and La
Niña weather phases. Known as the Southeast Climate
Consortium, the
group shares their weather knowledge via the Internet at
www.agclimate.org.
Designed as a resource for farmers, the consortium Web site issues
quarterly forecasts for Alabama, Florida and Georgia. It uses data
collected from university resources and the National Climate Data
Center.
The site is based on more than 50 years of weather data. It
provides monthly rainfall and temperature forecasts for Alabama,
Florida and Georgia counties.
The consortium’s member universities, besides UGA, are Auburn,
Alabama-Huntsville, Florida, Florida State and Miami.
The project is funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration’s Office of Global Programs, the U.S. Department of
Agriculture’s Cooperative State Research, Education and Extension
Service and the USDA’s Risk Management Agency.
