The drought that started in May 1998 is expected to continue
and worsen in Georgia
through at least early summer.

Recent rains have helped the soil moisture across parts of
the state. However, Georgia
is entering the prime growing season with little soil-moisture
reserve. Even with recent
rains, stream flows across the state remain well below
normal.

The outlook from the federal Climate Prediction
Center is for an increased probability of below-normal
precipitation and above-normal
temperatures statewide for March through July.

Soil-moisture
Deficits

Even with normal weather, Georgia normally loses more soil
moisture through evaporation
and transpiration than it gains through precipitation during
the peak of the summer
growing season.

During these times of soil-moisture deficits, plants depend
on the reserves that
collected during the winter. But this winter built up few
reserves.

For March, the CPC outlook is for equal chances of
above-normal, normal and
below-normal precipitation in all but the southern quarter of
the state.

South Georgia Outlook
Worrisome

There, the outlook is for a slightly greater chance of
below-normal precipitation.

An outlook only slightly below normal is still a concern in
south Georgia because of
the long dry period and the winter’s low soil-moisture
recharge.

Since Jan. 1, the southern half of the state is more than 3
inches below normal. Some
places along the Florida border have had a soil-moisture
deficit all year.

CPC’s long-lead March temperature outlook is for a
48-percent chance of above-normal,
34-percent chance of normal and 19-percent chance of
below-normal temperatures.

Long-term Outlooks Major
Concern

The March-through-May precipitation outlook is for a
23-percent chance of above-normal,
34-percent chance of normal and 43-percent chance of
below-normal precipitation across all
but the extreme north Georgia mountains. There, the outlook is
slightly better.

The temperature outlook for March through May is for a
41-percent chance of
above-normal, 34-percent chance of normal and 25-percent chance
of below-normal
temperatures statewide.

For June through August precipitation, the outlook is a
climatology forecast. This
means the chances of normal, above- and below-normal
precipitation are about equal.

But the summer is expected to be hotter than normal. For the
northern third of the
state, the temperature probabilities are 41 percent above
normal, 34 percent normal and 25
percent below normal. For the rest of the state, it’s worse: 48
percent above normal, 34
percent normal and 18 percent below normal.

Hotter Summer Means Drier,
Too

Warmer-than-normal weather will increase soil moisture
losses to evapotranspiration.
And with above-normal evapotranspiration, plants depend even
more on the already-low
soil-moisture reserve.

The La
Niña pattern most affects our current climate. This pattern
is marked by abnormally
cold surfaces in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The current La
Niña is in a mature stage.
But CPC computer models and statistical predictors expect it to
slowly weaken over the
next several months.

CPC reports that the subsurface temperature pattern in the
equatorial Pacific is
starting to evolve into the buildup stage for an El
Niño (abnormally warm Pacific surfaces) pattern. The
buildup usually takes one to two
years.

This change in the ocean temperature pattern is the first
sign that the drought’s end
may be in sight. However, we can’t expect much of a chance of
relief before late summer.